Embraer (NYSE: EMBJ; B3: EMBJ3) has published the Market Outlook 2026, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial jet aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category. The report was released in advance of the Farnborough Air Show next week.
Market Outlook 2026 estimates 8,500 orders valued at USD 650 billion for new jets through 2045. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. The document also analyzes the standard body (< 40t) cargo segment.
In the report’s introduction, Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, notes that a realignment of how people, capital and goods move around the globe will impact future flows of airline passengers.
“The expansion of advanced manufacturing clusters and regional value chains is generating sustained demand for efficient, high-frequency links between emerging economic centres.” He also cites how a shift in consumer preferences, particularly in tourism, is driving a need for greater airline network connectivity to smaller markets with sub-150-seat aircraft.
Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook – By the Numbers
World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.7% annually through 2045. China will lead among seven global regions.
Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked
- 5.2% China
- 4.6% Middle East
- 4.4% Africa
- 4.3% Latin America & Caribbean
- 4.1% Asia Pacific
- 2.7% Europe
- 2.0% North America
RPK share by the end of 2045
- 40% Asia Pacific + China
- 37% Europe + North America
Global demand for new jets up to 150 seats
- 8,500 units
Market value of new aircraft
- USD 650 billion
Jet deliveries – 8,500 (% share) – by region
- 2,670 North America (31%)
- 1,870 Europe/CIS (22%)
- 1,470 China (17%)
- 1,050 Asia Pacific (13%)
- 740 Latin America (9%)
- 370 Africa (4%)
- 330 Middle East (4%)
Aviation Jeta is an aviation news platform covering airlines, airports, aircraft, and global aviation developments. We publish accurate, well-researched, and detailed aviation news and industry insights from around the world.
