Airbus projects global freighter fleet to almost double by 2045
Airbus’ 2026 Cargo Global Market Forecast projects the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft to grow 46% from 2,360 in 2026 to 3,460 aircraft by 2045, as announced at the Cargo Facts Symposium.
According to the forecast, there will be a requirement for 2,670 freighters mainly to replace older models (1,580) and also for growth (1,090).
Of the 2,670 freighters required, 1,140 will be single-aisle, 860 mid-size widebodies, and 670 large widebody aircraft. Some 970 aircraft will be new-build, and 1,700 will be converted from passenger aircraft.
With long-term trade projected to expand at a 2.9% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), global air cargo traffic is forecasted to grow at 3.2% annually over the next two decades. Despite high fuel prices, ongoing geopolitical disruptions, and supply chain constraints, air freight has demonstrated remarkable resilience.
While air cargo accounts for less than 1% of global trade volume by weight, it carries more than 30% of total trade by value, proving it to be a vital mode of transport for goods requiring the quickest routes to market. In the last three years, computers and high-technology goods in air cargo have doubled in value, reaching 15% in 2026. Other drivers include e-commerce and air cargo seen as an alternative to shipping for some goods.
Asia-Pacific will continue to be the leading region for international air cargo traffic, with routes to North America being the largest (3.8% annual growth rate), followed by Europe. The newest freighter, the A350F, can operate these routes efficiently.
Regional demand for the 2,670 freighter deliveries will be led by North America and Asia-Pacific, requiring 925 and 850 aircraft respectively, together accounting for two-thirds of total global demand. Demand in Europe and CIS will reach 515 aircraft, followed by Latin America with 165, the Middle East with 125, and Africa with 90.
An increasing number of previous-generation freighters will be retired and replaced by highly efficient next-generation freighters in the next 20 years. This includes new-build models such as the A350F, as well as passenger-to-freighter conversions across the A320, A321, and A330 families, helping operators lower fuel consumption and reduce carbon emissions.
Aviation Jeta is an aviation news platform covering airlines, airports, aircraft, and global aviation developments. We publish accurate, well-researched, and detailed aviation news and industry insights from around the world.
